Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Thursday, January 16

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

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Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120853 SPC AC 120853

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low Days 4-5/Wed-Thu. Surface high pressure over the Southeast, and a prior cold frontal passage deep into the Gulf of Mexico will result in a dearth of boundary-layer moisture, precluding thunderstorm activity.

Medium range guidance continues to indicate that thunderstorm potential will increase sometime on Day 6/Fri, and into Days 7-8/Sat-Sun. While details remain uncertain, most guidance depicts strong deep-layer southwesterly flow spreading from the southern Plains into the Southeast and Ohio Valley as a series of embedded shortwave troughs migrate through a broader upper trough across central and eastern portions of the CONUS. Meanwhile, a surface low is expected to deepen over the Plains on Day 6/Fri, allowing south/southeasterly low-level flow across the western Gulf to transport modest moisture northward across the TX vicinity. As the low progresses east/northeast through the end of the period, boundary-layer moisture will increase ahead of a cold front across the Southeast on Day 7/Sat. While surface low and upper trough track/timing, and quality/extent of northward moisture return remain uncertain, some increasing severe potential is possible Days 6-7/Fri-Sat across portions of east Texas into the Lower MS Valley/Gulf Coast vicinity. Outlook probabilities may become necessary in the next day or two if forecast confidence increases.

..Leitman.. 01/12/2025

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National Risk Overview

Sunday, January 12: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Monday, January 13: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Tuesday, January 14: ANY SEVERE: low
Wednesday, January 15: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, January 16: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Friday, January 17: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Saturday, January 18: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, January 19: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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