Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Tuesday, April 28

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, April 24	15%
Day 5	Saturday, April 25	15%
Day 6	Sunday, April 26	15%
Day 7	Monday, April 27	15%
Day 8	Tuesday, April 28	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210859 SPC AC 210859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

DISCUSSION

An active severe weather pattern is expected through much of the forecast period …

Broadly cyclonic midlevel flow will persist through much of the forecast period to the south of a closed upper low over south-central Canada. This will place much of the Southern Plains in westerly or southwesterly mid- and upper-level flow each day. At the same time low-level pattern will support southerly flow from the surface up through 850 mb across the same region. The result will be an increasingly moist airmass to the east of a north-south dryline across western Oklahoma and Kansas, and to the south of a remnant west-to-east frontal boundary.

Diurnal heating of this moist airmass will result in afternoon MUCAPE values around 2000-3000 J/kg Friday and Saturday beneath 30-40 knots of vertical shear. Model guidance continues to show several perturbations within the midlevel flow traversing the Southern Plains on Friday into Sunday morning. The result will be multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms. The exact location and dimensions of these daily severe threats will likely be augmented by the prior days' convection, but the overall pattern supports near daily severe potential across much of the Southern Plains.

On Sunday (Day 6) a stronger, yet compact, midlevel wave is forecast to move northeast across Oklahoma. This wave is forecast to induce cyclogenesis across western Oklahoma, which should act to sharpen a dryline. To the east of the dryline, strong southerly winds will support surface dewpoints increasing into the upper 60Fs to perhaps low 70Fs. Diurnal heating of this airmass will result in MUCAPE values nearing 4000 J/kg across central Oklahoma. Deep-layer shear approaching 50 knots will overspread the region during the afternoon as the main wave approaches. Although global models are struggling to initiate convection along the dryline, pattern recognition would support a significant severe weather threat Sunday evening. The lack of model convective initiation results in enough uncertainty to preclude the introduction of 30% unconditional severe probabilities. All severe hazards will be possible on Sunday.

The severe threat will continue into Monday/Day-7 as the midlevel low and surface cyclone translate east into the lower Mississippi Valley. The severe threat may continue into Tuesday/Day-8 across portions of the Southeast US, although numerous days of preceding convection should use up the steep lapse rate reservoir to the west resulting in too much uncertainty to introduce unconditional severe probabilities at this time.

..Marsh.. 04/21/2026

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National Risk Overview

Tuesday, April 21: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Wednesday, April 22: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Thursday, April 23: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Friday, April 24: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Saturday, April 25: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Sunday, April 26: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Monday, April 27: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Tuesday, April 28: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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