Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Thursday, April 30

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, April 26	30%
Day 5	Monday, April 27	30%
Day 6	Tuesday, April 28	predictability too low
Day 7	Wednesday, April 29	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, April 30	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230904 SPC AC 230904

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0404 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Valid 261200Z - 011200Z

DISCUSSION

A multi-day severe weather event remains on track for Sunday/Day-4 evening through Monday/Day-5, with additional severe storms possible during the rest of the forecast period.

A vigorous, yet compact, negatively tilted midlevel wave is forecast to move across the Southwest and eject into the Plains Sunday evening into Monday. As this wave ejects into the central US, strong surface cyclogenesis is expected over the Central Plains on Sunday evening. The flow around this low will help draw very rich boundary layer moisture northward to the east of a sharpening dryline. The atmosphere on Sunday across the Southern and Central Plains should remain capped for much of the day, allowing extreme instability (SBCAPE/MUCAPE values in excess of 4000 J/kg) to develop. As modest height falls overspread the dryline during the late afternoon and evening hours, the expectation is that at least a few storms will be able to break through the cap. While 20260423/00Z global guidance is still struggling to produce widespread precipitation along and east of the dryline, the control members are now at least producing light QPF along the dryline which would tend to support the idea that isolated convection will be possible.

The environment to the east of the dryline will be very unstable and increasingly sheared as enhanced midlevel flow overspreads the warm sector. Additionally, as the surface low deepens during the evening hours, low-level winds will respond by rapidly increasing to greater than 50 knots. The result will be the potential for any thunderstorm that develops and sustains itself to become strong supercells capable of producing all severe hazards, including significant severe.

As the main wave continues to lift northeast on Monday, the surface low should rapidly move from the Central Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley. As this occurs, a surface warm front will rapidly lift northward on the nose of an intense low-level jet. This low-level jet will likely result in widespread precipitation to the north of the front, which will have impacts on the northern extent of Monday afternoon's severe potential.

By Monday afternoon, additional thunderstorms are expected to develop along and east of an advancing dryline/cold front in an increasingly unstable atmosphere. Diurnal heating of a boundary layer with low-to-mid-60Fs dewpoints should result in SBCAPE/MUCAPE values between 2000-3000 J/kg. Additionally, vertical shear will remain more than sufficient for supercells. All severe hazards will remain possible with this convection, with the greatest concentration of severe storms likely across the Mid-Mississippi Valley where a 30% area was introduced.

Monday evening into the overnight hours will see a continued potential for severe storms as the surface front pushes east into the western portions of the Ohio Valley. Additionally, severe storms will likely continue across the southwest portion of the front, which will slowly begin to stall in a southwest-to-northeast or west-to-east configuration across Arkansas into Kentucky.

Additional severe storms will be possible Tuesday/Day-6 through Thursday/Day-8 across the Southern and Central Plains into the Lower-to-Middle Mississippi Valley as cyclonic midlevel flow persists atop a moist boundary layer with a frontal boundary somewhere across the area. However, given the uncertainties in how the convective evolution of Sunday and Monday will impact the location of relevant surface features and the general uncertainty associated with identifying the timing of midlevel perturbations embedded within the broader scale cyclonic midlevel flow, unconditional 15% severe probabilities will be deferred to subsequent outlooks.

..Marsh.. 04/23/2026

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National Risk Overview

Thursday, April 23: TORNADO: 10%; HAIL: 30%; WIND: 15%
Friday, April 24: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Saturday, April 25: ANY SEVERE: 30%
Sunday, April 26: ANY SEVERE: 30%
Monday, April 27: ANY SEVERE: 30%
Tuesday, April 28: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, April 29: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, April 30: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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