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Outlook for Tuesday, April 13

Outlook Summary

Episodes of strong to severe thunderstorms are most probable today and tonight from east Texas across parts of Louisiana.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 15%

hail 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 131625

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021

Valid 131630Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST LA AND TONIGHT FROM EAST TX INTO WESTERN LA

### SUMMARY

Episodes of strong to severe thunderstorms are most probable today and tonight from east Texas across parts of Louisiana.

LA/TX areas today into tonight

A cluster of slightly elevated thunderstorms is ongoing across south central and southeast LA as of late morning, with a few embedded stronger cells capable of producing isolated large hail. The hail threat is supported by the influx of low-mid 70s boundary-layer dewpoints across the northwest Gulf coast, beneath the eastern extent of midlevel lapse rates near 8 C/km. The convection this morning has been driven largely by weak low-level warm advection in a moist profile with little convective inhibition, which suggests that storms will likely persist through the afternoon. Gradual upscale growth into a larger cluster/MCS appears possible, with a tendency for cold pool formation to result in slow southeastward propagation into this afternoon/evening. The primary severe threats with these storms will be occasional large hail and isolated damaging gusts.

Farther west and later this afternoon, isolated surface-based storm development will be possible along the stalled synoptic front across east TX. Forcing for ascent will be weak and this area will be along the northeast edge of the stronger cap, so diurnal storm coverage is in question. If storms do form this afternoon, the environment conditionally favors supercells capable of producing large hail/damaging winds. Otherwise, another round of strong-severe storms appears probable from east TX into LA in conjunction with some increase in low-level warm advection late tonight. A continued feed of rich low-level moisture from the south and steep midlevel lapse rates will maintain MUCAPE at or above 2000 J/kg, with an attendant threat for at least isolated large hail/damaging winds.

..Thompson/Wendt.. 04/13/2021

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, April 13
TORNADO: 2%
HAIL: 15%
WIND: 15%
Wednesday, April 14
TORNADO: 2%
HAIL: 5%
WIND: 5%
Thursday, April 15
ANY SEVERE: low
Friday, April 16
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Saturday, April 17
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, April 18
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, April 19
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, April 20
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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