Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Tuesday, May 11

Outlook Summary

Isolated strong to severe storms may occur Tuesday across parts of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 090728

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sun May 09 2021

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST

### SUMMARY

Isolated strong to severe storms may occur Tuesday across parts of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast.

Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast

Mainly elevated storms should be ongoing at the start of the period Tuesday morning across parts of the southern High Plains as a weak, low-amplitude shortwave trough overspreads this region. Steep mid-level lapse rates associated with an EML will probably still be present across much of TX downstream of this early day convection. Moderate elevated instability and sufficient deep-layer shear appears to be present across this region, and isolated large hail may occur with any supercells that can develop and persist. Storms should eventually cross a surface front, with increasing potential for becoming surface based through the afternoon across parts of central into coastal/east TX. The stronger west-southwesterly winds aloft will likely remain to the north of this region, but enough mid-level flow should be present to support some updraft organization and continued isolated severe potential.

Farther east, a surface front should move only slowly southward through the day across LA into central and southern MS/AL/GA. Although details regarding convective evolution remain unclear, it does appear that diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass to the south of the front will support weak to moderate instability by Tuesday afternoon. Mid-level flow should not be overly strong across the warm sector, but it may still be enough to foster storm organization. One or more clusters may form along the front and move south-southeastward through Tuesday evening, posing a threat for isolated large hail and damaging winds.

..Gleason.. 05/09/2021

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

National Risk Overview

Sunday, May 9
TORNADO: 5%
HAIL: 30%
WIND: 30%
Monday, May 10
TORNADO: 2%
HAIL: 15%
WIND: 15%
Tuesday, May 11
ANY SEVERE: 5%
Wednesday, May 12
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, May 13
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Friday, May 14
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Saturday, May 15
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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