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Outlook for Monday, September 26

Outlook Summary

The risk for showers and isolated thunderstorms capable of producing strong wind gusts, and perhaps brief tornadoes, may begin to increase late Monday night (toward daybreak Tuesday) across parts of the lower Florida Keys.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 5%

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 251640

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS

### SUMMARY

The risk for showers and isolated thunderstorms capable of producing strong wind gusts, and perhaps brief tornadoes, may begin to increase late Monday night (toward daybreak Tuesday) across parts of the lower Florida Keys.

Discussion

Models suggest that there will be little change to the amplified mid/upper flow regime now developing across North America, through at least daybreak Tuesday. This will include prominent ridging across the Pacific coast through much of the Canadian Prairies and U.S. Great Plains, and large-scale downstream troughing across the Mississippi Valley through the Atlantic Seaboard.

The cold front associated with a reinforcing intrusion of cool and/or dry air to the east of the Rockies is forecast to slowly advance offshore of much of the middle and southern Atlantic coast, and into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico Monday through Monday night. This will leave generally stable conditions in its wake, aside from those areas beneath colder mid-level air across parts of the lower Great Lakes region into the St. Lawrence Valley vicinity, where a few thunderstorms are possible.

In lower latitudes, the center of developing Hurricane Ian is forecast to migrate north-northwestward into the vicinity of far western Cuba by daybreak Tuesday. Strengthening easterly to southeasterly low-level wind fields may be accompanied by sufficient enlargement of increasingly clockwise curved low-level hodographs, and boundary-layer moistening, to begin contributing to increasing potential for brief tornadoes and/or severe wind gusts in convection as far northeast as the lower Florida Keys late Monday night.

..Kerr.. 09/25/2022

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

National Risk Overview

Sunday, September 25
TORNADO: 2%
HAIL: 5%
WIND: 15%
Monday, September 26
TORNADO: 2%
HAIL: low
WIND: 5%
Tuesday, September 27
ANY SEVERE: 5%
Wednesday, September 28
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, September 29
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Friday, September 30
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Saturday, October 1
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, October 2
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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