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Outlook for Thursday, September 29

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

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Detailed Outlook


Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022

Valid 281200Z - 031200Z


Generally dry and stable conditions in the wake of this weekend's cold frontal passage are expected to limit severe-thunderstorm potential for most of the CONUS into next weekend. The primary concern will be Tropical Cyclone Ian, which could impact Florida and adjacent portions of the Southeast through the end of this week.

Florida into the coastal Carolinas

Refer to NHC advisories and forecasts for more information on Tropical Cyclone Ian. Ian is currently forecast to move into the northeast Gulf of Mexico on D4/Wednesday as a hurricane, and potentially approach some part of the Gulf Coast of Florida by D5/Thursday, though the usual uncertainties regarding track and intensity apply at this forecast range.

Aside from Ian's track and intensity, another notable factor that will likely impact the tornado threat will be the cold front that is forecast to move into the northern Gulf of Mexico and parts of north FL early this week. This baroclinic zone will be reinforced as precipitation spreads north of the boundary and falls into an initially rather cool and dry airmass. Low-level shear may become locally enhanced in the vicinity of this front, which could locally increase the tornado threat, but stable conditions on the immediate cool side of the front may also constrain the northward extent of any tornado risk. Cell motion relative to boundary orientation and the extent of airmass modification on the cool side of the boundary will be important factors, and these mesoscale details have little predictability at this forecast range.

The highest relative confidence in a tornado threat is across parts of the FL Peninsula on D4/Wednesday, where antecedent tropical moisture will not be scoured out by the early-week frontal passage, and low-level flow/shear are most likely be enhanced to the east/northeast of the cyclone track. Depending on Ian's track and the evolution of mesoscale factors described above, some tornado threat could spread into parts of southern GA and the coastal Carolinas by the end of the week.

..Dean.. 09/25/2022


National Risk Overview

Sunday, September 25
HAIL: low
WIND: 5%
Monday, September 26
HAIL: low
WIND: 5%
Tuesday, September 27
Wednesday, September 28
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, September 29
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Friday, September 30
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Saturday, October 1
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, October 2
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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