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Outlook for Saturday, January 28

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Saturday.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 271650

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Saturday.

Synopsis

Broad, upper-level troughing will persist across the CONUS on Saturday. A mid/upper shortwave impulse embedded in larger-scale flow over the Rockies early in the day will eject eastward across the Plains and into the Midwest through early Sunday. As this occurs, the southwesterly subtropical jet over Mexico will merge with strong westerly flow associated with the ejecting shortwave trough over the southern Plains and mid/lower MS Valley Saturday evening/overnight. At the surface, low pressure will develop east and northeast along a frontal zone from the southern High Plains into the upper Great Lakes vicinity. This will allow for southerly low-level flow and northward transport of Gulf moisture across the south-central U.S. This will aid in development of weak instability across east TX toward AR into western MS/TN overnight. Warm midlevel temperatures will result in capping for much of the period. However, midlevel moistening along with increasing large-scale ascent will support isolated thunderstorm development after 03z, though severe thunderstorms are not expected.

..Leitman.. 01/27/2023

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z

National Risk Overview

Friday, January 27
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Saturday, January 28
TORNADO: low
HAIL: low
WIND: low
Sunday, January 29
ANY SEVERE: 5%
Monday, January 30
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, January 31
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, February 1
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, February 2
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Friday, February 3
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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