new youtube channel - we've just launched a new experimental youtube channel over at tornado HQ, including severe weather outlook videos.
You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.
If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270948 SPC AC 270948
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
Organized severe thunderstorm potential should be muted through the early to middle portion of next week, as appreciable low-level moisture and related boundary-layer instability remain generally confined to the coastal Gulf waters. An upper trough/low should pivot from the West Coast across northern Mexico and the Southwest, eventually reaching the southern Plains vicinity around Day 6/Wednesday. Regardless, a strong surface high intrusion across much of the Plains and eastern states is forecast to greatly limit the inland return of low-level moisture across the TX Coast.
There are some indications that sufficient moisture return to support surface-based thunderstorms may occur over parts of the Southeast by Day 7/Thursday into Day 8/Friday. It appears that enough instability may be present Thursday over this region to support some threat for severe thunderstorms. However, typical model uncertainties exist at this extended time frame regarding the progression of the upper trough, placement of the related surface low, and degree of instability forecast. This suggests predictability remains too low to include any 15% severe areas for Thursday and Friday.
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Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.
SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.