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Outlook for Tuesday, June 18

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

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Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130714 SPC AC 130714

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 5/Monday – Eastern Dakotas/Minnesota

A southwesterly midlevel jet is forecast to overspread a seasonally moist/unstable environment on Monday. Large-scale ascent will remain somewhat nebulous as the more apparent synoptic upper trough remains over the northern Rockies. However, forecast guidance suggests a lead shortwave impulse may migrate through southwesterly mid/upper flow. Favorable vertical shear will support organized severe storms, though coverage and convective evolution remains uncertain.

Days 6-8/Tue-Thu

Beyond Day 5/Monday, forecast guidance generally shows an overall slower trend with eastward progress of a western upper trough. Severe potential may increase across portions of the northern/central Plains around Day 6/Tue or Day 7/Wed if the trough ejects east/northeast. If this occurs, enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow would overspread a seasonally moist and unstable environment ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front. This overall pattern would support some severe potential somewhere from the northern into central Plains. The GFS suite of guidance is more progressive and favors this scenario. However, the ECMWF maintains a stronger eastern upper ridge with little eastward progression of the western upper trough through mid-week. Nevertheless, a broad area of enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow will impinge on the northern Plains vicinity, and some severe potential seems probable, but location and timing is too uncertain to include probabilities.

..Leitman.. 06/13/2024

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National Risk Overview

Thursday, June 13
TORNADO: 5%
HAIL: 30%
WIND: 30%
Friday, June 14
TORNADO: 2%
HAIL: 15%
WIND: 15%
Saturday, June 15
ANY SEVERE: 5%
Sunday, June 16
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, June 17
ANY SEVERE: 15%
Tuesday, June 18
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, June 19
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, June 20
ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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