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Outlook for Thursday, September 12

Outlook Summary

A low-probability tornado threat may persist into Thursday across parts of the Deep South. Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible over the northern High Plains vicinity on Thursday afternoon and evening.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 101913

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST…AND FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE FAR WESTERN DAKOTAS

### SUMMARY

A low-probability tornado threat may persist into Thursday across parts of the Deep South. Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible over the northern High Plains vicinity on Thursday afternoon and evening.

Synopsis

An upper trough over the Great Basin will eject northeastward into the northern Rockies/High Plains through Friday morning, with moderate midlevel meridional flow aloft. Accompanying this trough will be a cold front which will extend from eastern MT into eastern WY.

To the east, TC Francine is forecast to move northward up the lower MS valley, with strong southerly winds helping to bring moisture north across much of the Southeast east of the center/low. High pressure will remain over the Mid Atlantic, adding to the pressure gradient east of the cyclone.

Eastern MT into the western Dakotas

Daytime heating as well as cooling aloft with the upper trough will result in steepening lapse rates, though low-level moisture will be meager with 40s dewpoints primarily east of the cold front. A narrow band of uncapped and unstable air will still develop during the late afternoon, with around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE and 40 kt deep-layer effective shear. As such, scattered cells are likely to develop along the front, and the elongated hodographs may favor a few single cells despite linear forcing mechanism. Therefore isolated hail over 1.00" may occur, as well as brief bowing segments producing strong gusts.

Much of AL, eastern MS…FL Panhandle

Scattered thunderstorms are likely to exist from the northeastern quadrant of TC Francine arcing southeastward across much of AL and into the FL Panhandle Thursday morning. Low-level theta-e advection will exist near a warm front as it lifts north across AL, though dry air will exist from the Appalachians into parts of the OH/TN Valleys initially.

The greatest risk of a couple tornadoes will likely be limited to storms within the instability plume centered over AL, and including the FL Panhandle and perhaps far eastern MS. Low-level shear will be strong to start the day, but will be reduced as the system continues north and low-level flow veers.

..Jewell.. 09/10/2024

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, September 10: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Wednesday, September 11: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Thursday, September 12: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Friday, September 13: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Saturday, September 14: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, September 15: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, September 16: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, September 17: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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