Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Saturday, December 7

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

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Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030802 SPC AC 030802

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CST Tue Dec 03 2024

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

DISCUSSION

Significant low-level moisture will remain offshore through the middle of the weekend. However, by Sunday and especially Monday, the GFS and ECMWF both show mid 60s dewpoints inland perhaps as far north as the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Once this moisture moves inland, some severe weather is possible. Greatest concern at this time is Day8/Tuesday as both the ECMWF and GFS (as well as their ensemble mean) have a strong, positively tilted mid-level trough moving into the southern Plains with surface cyclogenesis. Despite the mid 60s dewpoints inland, current forecast instability from the ECMWF and GFS remains quite weak. This combined with uncertainty regarding timing and evolution of the trough precludes any significant severe weather concern at this time. However, this period will continue to be monitored as the details become more clear.

..Bentley.. 12/03/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, December 3: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Wednesday, December 4: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Thursday, December 5: ANY SEVERE: low
Friday, December 6: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Saturday, December 7: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, December 8: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, December 9: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, December 10: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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