Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Saturday, August 2

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, July 29	predictability too low
Day 5	Wednesday, July 30	predictability too low
Day 6	Thursday, July 31	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, August 1	predictability too low
Day 8	Saturday, August 2	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260852 SPC AC 260852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

DISCUSSION

The upper-level pattern over the next week will generally feature an elongated upper ridge centered over the Southeast stretching into the Northwest. In the Northeast and nearby vicinity, upper-level cyclonic flow will be present. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will accompany that trough. Along the West Coast, a lower amplitude shortwave trough will slowly move northward along the coast. As the Northeast trough continues to shift east into late next week and the weekend, the surface cold front will continue to be pushed southward. Thunderstorms are likely to occur along and near this boundary given the hot and moist airmass to its south. While some severe risk could accompany this activity, stronger mid-level flow will become displaced farther and farther northward from the boundary each day. This leads to uncertainty in the overall magnitude of the severe threat from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-South/Southeast.

Additional storms, with some severe potential could occur in parts of the Northwest with the approach of greater mid-level moisture and the trough. Again, the placement and intensity of this activity is uncertain. Even with a decrease in low-level moisture behind the surface front, remaining moisture will be pushing into the terrain of the northern Rockies. Along with some mid-level flow enhancement, strong to severe storms would be possible.

..Wendt.. 07/26/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Saturday, July 26: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Sunday, July 27: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Monday, July 28: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Tuesday, July 29: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, July 30: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, July 31: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, August 1: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, August 2: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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