Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Thursday, October 9

Outlook Summary

Organized severe storms are not forecast.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 090543

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Thu Oct 09 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Organized severe storms are not forecast.

Discussion

Large-scale pattern does not appear particularly favorable for robust organized thunderstorms today; although, several areas of concentrated convection are expected.

Upper ridge is forecast to continue across the southern High Plains through the day1 period as a strong low holds off the Oregon Coast. Modest southwesterly flow will encourage higher PW air mass across the southwestern U.S. into the Four Corners region where modest boundary-layer heating will contribute to adequate destabilization for lighting within deeper convective updrafts.

Scattered thunderstorms are also expected across south FL in association with a low-latitude midlevel trough that will drift slowly north through the period. High-PW air mass and poor lapse rates appear supportive of potentially heavy rain, rather than severe storms, within broader easterly low-level flow.

Isolated thunderstorms may also develop within northwesterly high-level diffluent flow ahead of a digging trough. Weak instability should develop ahead of a surface front, and elevated convection appears possible during the latter half of the period from the upper Great Lakes into eastern Kansas.

..Darrow/Squitieri.. 10/09/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

National Risk Overview

Thursday, October 9: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Friday, October 10: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Saturday, October 11: ANY SEVERE: low
Sunday, October 12: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, October 13: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, October 14: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, October 15: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, October 16: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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