Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Saturday, November 8

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, November 4	potential too low
Day 5	Wednesday, November 5	potential too low
Day 6	Thursday, November 6	potential too low
Day 7	Friday, November 7	predictability too low
Day 8	Saturday, November 8	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010839 SPC AC 010839

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CDT Sat Nov 01 2025

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6

From Tuesday into Wednesday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward into the central U.S., as a trough moves onto the West Coast. As the trough moves inland Wednesday afternoon, thunderstorms will be possible along the West Coast from northern California to Washington. This trough is forecast to move quickly eastward into the central Plains on Thursday. Isolated thunderstorms may develop Thursday night ahead of the trough in parts of the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. The severe potential should remain limited due to weak instability ahead of the trough.

Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8

As the mid-level trough progresses eastward into the Ohio Valley on Friday, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible during the day. A marginal severe threat will be possible, if enough instability can develop.

On Saturday, a large-scale mid-level trough is forecast to form over the central U.S. Ahead of this feature, some low-level moisture is expected to return into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Although instability is forecast to be weak ahead of the system, an isolated severe threat would be possible across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Saturday night. However, uncertainty is substantial at this extended range.

..Broyles.. 11/01/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Saturday, November 1: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 5%
Sunday, November 2: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Monday, November 3: ANY SEVERE: low
Tuesday, November 4: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, November 5: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, November 6: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, November 7: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, November 8: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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