Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Sunday, November 9

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, November 5	potential too low
Day 5	Thursday, November 6	potential too low
Day 6	Friday, November 7	potential too low
Day 7	Saturday, November 8	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, November 9	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020951 SPC AC 020951

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CST Sun Nov 02 2025

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

DISCUSSION

Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6

A mid-level trough is forecast to move onto the West Coast on Wednesday. As the trough moves inland, thunderstorm development will be possible near the coast of northern California, Oregon and Washington. The mid-level trough is forecast to move quickly eastward into the central Plains on Thursday, and into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Friday. From Thursday afternoon into Friday, thunderstorms will be possible from eastern parts of the central Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the trough, low-level moisture return and the resultant instability is expected to be somewhat limited, suggesting the severe potential will remain minimal.

Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8

On Saturday, a large-scale mid-level trough is forecast to quickly take shape over the central U.S. Ahead of the trough, low-level moisture is forecast to return northward into the Ark-La-Tex and mid Mississippi Valley, where thunderstorms will be possible Saturday afternoon. Convective coverage is forecast to expand southeastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley Saturday night. Model forecasts suggest that moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear will be in place, which would support a severe threat from Saturday afternoon and evening. Concerning the potential for a severe weather event, uncertainty is substantial. Some solutions suggest that the favorable environment for severe will remain spatially focused into a small area, and that a front could undercut the convection. For this reason, will keep the forecast at "predictability too low".

On Sunday, the system is forecast to move eastward across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the trough, an isolated severe threat will be possible across parts of the Southeast and southern Atlantic Seaboard. However, uncertainty concerning the potential for severe storms is considerable at this range.

..Broyles.. 11/02/2025

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National Risk Overview

Sunday, November 2: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Monday, November 3: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Tuesday, November 4: ANY SEVERE: low
Wednesday, November 5: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, November 6: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, November 7: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, November 8: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, November 9: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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