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Outlook for Monday, November 17

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, November 13	potential too low
Day 5	Friday, November 14	potential too low
Day 6	Saturday, November 15	predictability too low
Day 7	Sunday, November 16	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, November 17	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100846 SPC AC 100846

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

Modified return flow will persist across the western Gulf late week, with a maritime tropical airmass reaching the TX Gulf Coast next weekend. This will support a return of severe-storm potential to mainly the western and central Gulf Coast States.

Downstream evolution of a broad upper trough along the West Coast on D4/Thursday is the primary forecast challenge into the weekend. While the 00Z runs of the EC, GFS, and CMC have converged to greater alignment with the handling of the southern-stream shortwave trough across the Southwest and northern Mexico, run-to-run continuity remains poor. In addition, differing scenarios in other guidance such as a much slower cutoff low in the EC-AI, along with a large amount of spread across the GEFS/ECENS, all suggest a fairly unpredictable pattern continues. This is further supported by WPC's latest EPD mention of well below-average confidence in this weekend's forecast.

..Grams.. 11/10/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Monday, November 10: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Tuesday, November 11: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Wednesday, November 12: ANY SEVERE: low
Thursday, November 13: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, November 14: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, November 15: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, November 16: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, November 17: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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