Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Wednesday, December 3

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, November 29	predictability too low
Day 5	Sunday, November 30	potential too low
Day 6	Monday, December 1	potential too low
Day 7	Tuesday, December 2	predictability too low
Day 8	Wednesday, December 3	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260850 SPC AC 260850

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Valid 291200Z - 041200Z

DISCUSSION

A progressive upper air pattern is expected through the remainder of this week into the middle of next week, with multiple mid-level troughs poised to develop and amplify while progressing across the CONUS. This pattern will support cooler temperatures across the northern half of the U.S. through the extended period, resulting stable low-level conditions and limited potential for thunderstorm development. However, the passage of multiple mid-level troughs will result in surface low development, accompanied by moisture return and at least some thunderstorm potential across the southern Plains into the Southeast on a few occasions.

First, a surface low will rapidly translate from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes on Day 4/Saturday, becoming displaced from the moisture axis with time. Before departing the southern Plains, an appreciable fetch of low-level moisture will become established over the Sabine River Valley ahead of a surface cold front. It is plausible that at least a few strong to potentially severe thunderstorms could develop. However, the rapid departure of the surface low will reduce deep-layer ascent, with storm coverage ultimately in question (hence no severe probabilities being introduced at this time).

Medium range guidance consensus has the next in a series of mid-level troughs amplifying over the southern Plains, which may support surface low development somewhere over the Lower MS Valley early next week. Should this occur, isolated strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out along the Gulf Coast. However, the development, track, or evolution of the surface low is currently unclear in the guidance, warranting the withholding of severe probabilities for now.

..Squitieri.. 11/26/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, November 26: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Thursday, November 27: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Friday, November 28: ANY SEVERE: low
Saturday, November 29: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, November 30: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, December 1: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, December 2: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, December 3: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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