Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Thursday, December 4

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, November 30	potential too low
Day 5	Monday, December 1	potential too low
Day 6	Tuesday, December 2	predictability too low
Day 7	Wednesday, December 3	potential too low
Day 8	Thursday, December 4	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270953 SPC AC 270953

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Valid 301200Z - 051200Z

DISCUSSION

A progressive upper pattern will overspread the CONUS next week, ushering in multiple rounds of surface high pressure across the western, northern, and eastern CONUS. Thunderstorm development should thus be limited over much of the U.S. through the extended forecast period. One exception may be portions of the Gulf Coast early next week. By around Day 6 (Tuesday), medium-range guidance depicts a pronounced mid-level trough amplifying over the Middle MS Valley, supporting surface low development along the southeast Gulf Coast. Seasonal low-level moisture may advect a few hundred miles inland from the coast, ahead of the surface low. If this occurs, isolated severe thunderstorms may develop along the warm front. However, timing and placement of the surface low differs too much among medium range guidance for the introduction of severe probabilities this far in advance.

..Squitieri.. 11/27/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Thursday, November 27: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Friday, November 28: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Saturday, November 29: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Sunday, November 30: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, December 1: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, December 2: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, December 3: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, December 4: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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