Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Monday, December 8

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, December 4	potential too low
Day 5	Friday, December 5	potential too low
Day 6	Saturday, December 6	potential too low
Day 7	Sunday, December 7	potential too low
Day 8	Monday, December 8	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010837 SPC AC 010837

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 AM CST Mon Dec 01 2025

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

A series of progressive mid-level troughs, embedded in broader west-northwest to east-southeast flow aloft, will aid in reinforcing multiple rounds of surface high pressure across most of the CONUS, with static stability limiting thunderstorm development over most locales. There is the chance that ahead of some of the high pressure surges that some low-level moisture could advect inland from the Gulf. Should this occur, at least isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible. Compared to earlier medium-range guidance, some of the most recent guidance has diverged in agreement of a more robustly buoyant airmass advecting inland through this weekend into early next week. As such, it currently does not appear that an organized severe threat will materialize in the Days 4-8 period.

..Squitieri.. 12/01/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Monday, December 1: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: low; WIND: 5%
Tuesday, December 2: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: low; WIND: 5%
Wednesday, December 3: ANY SEVERE: low
Thursday, December 4: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, December 5: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, December 6: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, December 7: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, December 8: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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