Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Sunday, December 14

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, December 10	potential too low
Day 5	Thursday, December 11	potential too low
Day 6	Friday, December 12	potential too low
Day 7	Saturday, December 13	potential too low
Day 8	Sunday, December 14	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070848 SPC AC 070848

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 AM CST Sun Dec 07 2025

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

DISCUSSION

After becoming suppressed a bit, medium-range guidance indicates that a blocking high may become more prominent again, near/north of the Aleutians late this coming work week into next weekend. Surrounding developments across the mid- and higher latitudes of the Pacific do become characterized by increasing spread. However, it is not yet clear how much impact this will have on downstream flow across North America. It still appears that an increasingly confluent northwesterly mid-level regime, between persistent ridging across the eastern Pacific into western North America and downstream troughing, may support the development of another expansive surface ridge east of the Rockies into the Gulf Basin and Atlantic Seaboard late this week through next weekend. This is likely to further impede deep boundary-layer moistening over the northwestern Gulf. Coupled with the lack of a developing southerly return flow from the Gulf Basin until at least early next week, it appears that generally stable conditions will be maintained through this period.

..Kerr.. 12/07/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Sunday, December 7: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: low; WIND: 5%
Monday, December 8: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Tuesday, December 9: ANY SEVERE: low
Wednesday, December 10: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, December 11: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, December 12: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, December 13: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, December 14: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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