Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Monday, December 15

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, December 11	potential too low
Day 5	Friday, December 12	potential too low
Day 6	Saturday, December 13	potential too low
Day 7	Sunday, December 14	potential too low
Day 8	Monday, December 15	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080925 SPC AC 080925

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

DISCUSSION

Downstream of a prominent blocking high, which may be maintained near/north of the Aleutians vicinity through this period, latest medium-range output suggests that flow across the mid-latitude Pacific through North America may trend less amplified by next weekend into early next week. Relatedly, guidance is becoming more unclear how impactful cold air, initially building to the lee of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies by late this week, will be in terms of drying across the northern Gulf Basin, as it noses south/southeastward in one or two surges through the remainder of the period.

It now appears at least a bit more of a possibility that a weak to modest elevated, if not boundary-layer based, Gulf moisture return could occur on a developing southerly return flow, across parts of the northwestern Gulf coast into southern Great Plains next weekend into early next week. This could promote destabilization supportive of a risk for thunderstorm development. However, with surface cyclogenesis appearing unlikely to the lee of the southern Rockies, the potential for severe weather appears low in the presence of limited large-scale forcing for ascent and vertical shear.

..Kerr.. 12/08/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Monday, December 8: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Tuesday, December 9: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Wednesday, December 10: ANY SEVERE: low
Thursday, December 11: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, December 12: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, December 13: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, December 14: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, December 15: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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