Severe Weather Outlook

show me my personal outlook →

Hayley here - Do you like ~~lofi music~~ whatever music Hayley put on and terrifyingly loud computer voices? Then stop by the 24/7 ish severe weather live stream!

* stats delayed and were probably not accurate to begin with

Outlook for Tuesday, December 16

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, December 12	potential too low
Day 5	Saturday, December 13	potential too low
Day 6	Sunday, December 14	potential too low
Day 7	Monday, December 15	potential too low
Day 8	Tuesday, December 16	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090927 SPC AC 090927

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 AM CST Tue Dec 09 2025

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range models indicate that at least a couple of short wave troughs, digging within an initially strong northwesterly regime across and to the east-southeast of the Canadian Rockies, will contribute to reinforcement of large-scale troughing farther downstream late this work week into next weekend. As this occurs, cold surface ridging building to the lee of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies is forecast to eventually overspread much of the central and eastern U.S., offshore Atlantic and northwestern Gulf Basin by the beginning of next week.

Based on the past few model runs, it appears that an initial southeastward surge of cold air may weaken before reaching the Gulf coast, allowing for a gradual boundary-layer modification over the northwestern Gulf Basin to continue, before the more substantive surge of cold air reaches the northern Gulf by late this weekend. Particularly in association with the stronger front, if not also the weaker initial one, a moistening elevated and perhaps boundary-layer based return flow may contribute to sufficient destabilization to support a risk for thunderstorms, anywhere in a corridor from southeastern Texas toward the Mid South and Tennessee Valley. However, with any surface frontal wave development forecast to remain weak, the risk for severe weather is likely to remain low.

Into early next week, model output becomes more varied, but it appears that flow may trend more zonal across the northern mid-latitudes of North America. In lower latitudes, another developing moist southerly return flow, in advance of troughing digging across the southern Rockies and Great Plains, may contribute to renewed thunderstorm development across the northwestern Gulf coast vicinity. However, the potential for severe weather still seems limited at this time.

..Kerr.. 12/09/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, December 9: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Wednesday, December 10: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Thursday, December 11: ANY SEVERE: low
Friday, December 12: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, December 13: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, December 14: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, December 15: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, December 16: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Your Severe Outlook

Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.

Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.

Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.

Severe Weather Outlook Amazon link →

About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.