Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Wednesday, December 17

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, December 13	potential too low
Day 5	Sunday, December 14	potential too low
Day 6	Monday, December 15	potential too low
Day 7	Tuesday, December 16	potential too low
Day 8	Wednesday, December 17	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100914 SPC AC 100914

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

Based on the latest medium-range model output, a vigorous digging short wave trough is likely to contribute to substantive mid-level trough amplification once again across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, into and across the Mid Atlantic Seaboard this coming weekend. It appears that this may provide support for significant cyclogenesis along a frontal zone across the northwestern Atlantic, while a strongly confluent mid-level regime in its wake supports the southeastward development of a large cold surface ridge across most areas east of the Rockies, including the offshore Atlantic and Gulf Basin by early next week.

Thereafter, into the middle of next week, mid-level flow may trend a bit more zonal, at least across the northern mid-latitudes of North America. However, there is notable spread evident within and among the various model output concerning short waves emerging from the upstream blocking pattern, before progressing inland within splitting branches of westerlies across and east of the Rockies. After an initial suppression of Gulf boundary-layer moistening early next week, a developing southerly return flow with moistening that may lead to increasing convective potential appears possible across and northeast of the northwestern Gulf coast/lower Mississippi Valley vicinity. The extent to which this could include a risk for severe storms remains unclear, but currently still appears generally low through at least this period.

..Kerr.. 12/10/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, December 10: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Thursday, December 11: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Friday, December 12: ANY SEVERE: low
Saturday, December 13: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, December 14: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, December 15: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, December 16: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, December 17: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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