Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Thursday, December 18

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, December 14	potential too low
Day 5	Monday, December 15	potential too low
Day 6	Tuesday, December 16	potential too low
Day 7	Wednesday, December 17	potential too low
Day 8	Thursday, December 18	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110928 SPC AC 110928

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Latest medium-range model output indicates that the amplified trough, likely digging through the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley at the outset of the period, will continue rapidly digging across the U.S. Atlantic Seaboard, before pivoting offshore and supporting strong cyclogenesis through the northwestern Atlantic into early next week. In its wake, an initially expansive cold surface ridge, centered near the mid/lower Missouri Valley, may gradually weaken, but is forecast to continue southeastward into and across the offshore Atlantic, Florida Peninsula and much of the northern Gulf Basin.

Thereafter, it still appears that mid/upper flow may trend more zonal, particularly across the northern U.S. and southern Canada, downstream of a blocking high that is forecast to be maintained, but become suppressed to the south of the Aleutians. Short wave developments embedded within this regime remain uncertain, but there is still at least some signal that a developing southerly return flow may support a modest influx of moisture off the northwestern Gulf by the middle of next week. This could contribute to thunderstorm development across parts of the Mid South through portions of the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Wednesday into Thursday, ahead of a modest cold front. However, at this time, it appears that some combination of weak/limited destabilization and modest shear/forcing for ascent will tend to minimize the risk for severe storms.

..Kerr.. 12/11/2025

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National Risk Overview

Thursday, December 11: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Friday, December 12: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Saturday, December 13: ANY SEVERE: low
Sunday, December 14: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, December 15: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, December 16: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, December 17: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, December 18: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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