Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Friday, December 19

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, December 15	potential too low
Day 5	Tuesday, December 16	potential too low
Day 6	Wednesday, December 17	potential too low
Day 7	Thursday, December 18	potential too low
Day 8	Friday, December 19	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120919 SPC AC 120919

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

Strong high pressure will dominate the eastern CONUS on Monday with offshore flow across then entire Gulf Coast and East Coast. This dry, continental polar airmass across the eastern CONUS will result in no thunderstorms east of the Rockies on Monday and Tuesday. Some thunderstorms are possible along the coastal Pacific Northwest where some weak instability may be present.

By the middle of next week, moisture return should resume across Texas. This may result in some thunderstorm activity by early Wednesday in the east Texas vicinity. Beyond Wednesday, model uncertainty increases substantially. However, severe potential will still remain too low as even the most favorable mid-long range guidance indicates minimal instability and low severe weather threat.

..Bentley.. 12/12/2025

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National Risk Overview

Friday, December 12: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Saturday, December 13: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Sunday, December 14: ANY SEVERE: low
Monday, December 15: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, December 16: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, December 17: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, December 18: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, December 19: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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