Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Saturday, December 20

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, December 16	potential too low
Day 5	Wednesday, December 17	potential too low
Day 6	Thursday, December 18	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, December 19	predictability too low
Day 8	Saturday, December 20	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130846 SPC AC 130846

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

Moisture return will begin on Tuesday/D4 across Texas with some weak instability and thunderstorm potential arriving by Wednesday/D5. Significant differences in the upper-level pattern begin on Thursday/D6 and beyond which will significantly impact thunderstorm and severe weather potential.

The ECMWF and AIFS have a sharper mid-level trough farther south on Thursday/D6. This will result in a stronger cold front and farther north moisture return ahead of the front. In addition, some weak instability may develop beneath the stronger mid-level jet. This may create an environment favorable for a few stronger storms from the Lower Ohio Valley to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. This stronger scenario would likely push a strong cold front deep into the Gulf on Friday and limit thunderstorm potential into the weekend.

A less amplified solution (as shown by the GFS and AIGFS) would not support much of any strong storm threat on Thursday/D6. However, it would keep low to mid 60s dewpoints across Texas and the Lower MS Valley on Friday and into the weekend. This may result in weak to potentially moderate instability across portions of the southern Plains and possibly into the Mid-Mississippi Valley through the weekend. Despite this lingering instability, a mostly zonal mid-level pattern would not support a significant severe weather threat.

Overall, severe weather potential remains somewhat low for much of the period. Some low-end severe weather threat may exist from Thursday/D6 and beyond as low-level moisture increases, but significant uncertainties in the evolution of the upper-level pattern make any forecast for time or location of any potential low-end threat difficult.

..Bentley.. 12/13/2025

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National Risk Overview

Saturday, December 13: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Sunday, December 14: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Monday, December 15: ANY SEVERE: low
Tuesday, December 16: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, December 17: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, December 18: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, December 19: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, December 20: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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