Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Sunday, December 21

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, December 17	potential too low
Day 5	Thursday, December 18	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, December 19	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, December 20	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, December 21	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140956 SPC AC 140956

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

DISCUSSION

Northward moisture return is expected to persist through the period on D4/Wednesday as a strong surface low moves across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest and strong southerly flow expands across much of the warm sector. Despite the moisture advancing well inland, warm air aloft should limit strong thunderstorm potential on D4/Wednesday.

By D5/Thursday, weak to moderate instability is expected from East Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Strong shear will be present north of I-20 as a mid-level trough amplifies and a strong mid-level jet overspreads the warm sector. Despite the presence of strong shear and weak to moderate instability, updraft intensity may still struggle due to weak lapse rates/warm air aloft. Only weak height falls/cooling temperatures aloft are forecast south of the MO Bootheel. Thunderstorms are likely from the Mid-Mississippi Valley northward, where forcing will be stronger, but these regions will remain well north of the more favorable instability. Therefore, any severe weather threat would likely be marginal.

The cold front, associated with the storm system on D5/Thursday, will move off the East Coast early on D6/Friday. Some marginal severe weather may be possible Friday morning, but otherwise, severe weather potential will be low as high pressure builds east of the MS River in its wake.

By this weekend, return flow is anticipated across portions of the southern Plains, but destabilization remains uncertain. A zonal mid-level pattern with multiple embedded shortwave troughs is currently forecast during that timeframe which commonly results in considerably low predictability. Regardless of the exact outcome over the weekend, there is general consensus for zonal flow and a ridge building across the western CONUS and into the Plains. In general, this will likely not support a significant severe weather threat.

..Bentley.. 12/14/2025

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National Risk Overview

Sunday, December 14: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Monday, December 15: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Tuesday, December 16: ANY SEVERE: low
Wednesday, December 17: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, December 18: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, December 19: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, December 20: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, December 21: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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