Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Monday, January 12

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, January 9	15%
Day 5	Saturday, January 10	predictability too low
Day 6	Sunday, January 11	potential too low
Day 7	Monday, January 12	potential too low
Day 8	Tuesday, January 13	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 061000 SPC AC 061000

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Tue Jan 06 2026

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Friday: Lower MS Valley vicinity

A mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially over the southern Rockies is forecast to take on a positive tilt as it moves eastward on Friday, as a northern-stream shortwave trough digs from the Canadian Prairies toward the Upper Great Lakes. Some guidance has trended weaker and farther south with a surface low developing near the lower MS Valley by Friday evening, though a relatively large warm sector is still expected to be in place through most of the period. Scattered to widespread storm development is expected from parts of east TX into the lower MS Valley, with sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection and some attendant severe threat. Some adjustments to the 15% area have been made, based on guidance trends regarding surface low placement and the northward extent of the favorable warm sector.

D5/Saturday: Parts of the East

Uncertainty regarding the synoptic pattern increases by D5/Saturday, with varying solutions regarding the extent of mid/upper-level trough amplification across the eastern CONUS, and the strength of the related surface low. Guidance generally agrees that buoyancy will be limited across much of the warm sector on Saturday. However, any organized convection that develops Friday night may persist into Saturday morning across parts of the Southeast, with some potential for an isolated severe threat. Farther north, the strongest solutions (such as the 00Z deterministic ECMWF) depict notable intensification of low/midlevel flow from the Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic, which could result in some damaging-wind potential with any low-topped convection along or ahead of an advancing cold front.

..Dean.. 01/06/2026

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National Risk Overview

Tuesday, January 6: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Wednesday, January 7: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Thursday, January 8: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Friday, January 9: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Saturday, January 10: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, January 11: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, January 12: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, January 13: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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