Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Tuesday, January 13

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, January 10	predictability too low
Day 5	Sunday, January 11	potential too low
Day 6	Monday, January 12	potential too low
Day 7	Tuesday, January 13	potential too low
Day 8	Wednesday, January 14	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070915 SPC AC 070915

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Saturday

Some severe potential remains evident from parts of the Southeast into the Carolinas, Mid Atlantic, and possibly Ohio Valley on D4/Saturday, but details remain uncertain.

Guidance generally depicts continued amplification of a deep and progressive shortwave trough on Saturday across the eastern CONUS. A deepening surface low is forecast to move from the Ohio Valley toward the Lower Great Lakes, as a trailing cold front sweeps through much of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic. Strongly sheared convection with some severe potential may be ongoing Saturday morning along/ahead of the cold front, from parts of MS/AL into the southern Appalachians. Strong deep-layer flow/shear will eventually overspread parts of the Ohio Valley, Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. However, longevity and magnitude of the severe threat in these regions is uncertain, as instability weakens with northeastward extent, and stronger ascent becomes increasingly displaced north of the warm sector with time.

D5/Sunday - D8/Wednesday

The cold front is forecast to move through coastal NC and the FL Peninsula on Sunday, but weak ascent and buoyancy are expected to limit organized storm potential. Dry and stable conditions in the wake of this cold frontal passage are expected to minimize severe-storm potential across the CONUS into early next week.

..Dean.. 01/07/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, January 7: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Thursday, January 8: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Friday, January 9: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Saturday, January 10: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, January 11: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, January 12: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, January 13: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, January 14: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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