Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Friday, January 16

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, January 12	potential too low
Day 5	Tuesday, January 13	potential too low
Day 6	Wednesday, January 14	potential too low
Day 7	Thursday, January 15	potential too low
Day 8	Friday, January 16	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090943 SPC AC 090943

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Mid-level northwesterly flow is forecast to become established across the central U.S. on Monday. This appears likely to persist into mid-week as a large-scale trough develops in the Mississippi Valley. The pattern will help to usher cold and dry air southward into the Great Plains and Southeast, which will limit moisture return. From Thursday into Friday, the trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., reinforcing northwesterly mid-level flow over much of the nation. As a result, a cold and dry airmass is expected to remain over the continental U.S, minimizing the potential for thunderstorm development.

..Broyles.. 01/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Friday, January 9: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Saturday, January 10: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: low; WIND: 15%
Sunday, January 11: ANY SEVERE: low
Monday, January 12: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, January 13: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, January 14: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, January 15: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, January 16: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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