Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Monday, January 19

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, January 15	potential too low
Day 5	Friday, January 16	potential too low
Day 6	Saturday, January 17	potential too low
Day 7	Sunday, January 18	potential too low
Day 8	Monday, January 19	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120954 SPC AC 120954

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

A persistent large-scale upper-level trough is forecast to remain over the east-central U.S. during the Day 4 to 8 period. This pattern will be favorable for repeated cold air intrusions into the continental U.S late this week into early next week. As a result, cool and dry conditions are expected to remain in place over much of the nation, making thunderstorm development unlikely in most areas. No severe threat is forecast to develop over the continental U.S. through early next week.

..Broyles.. 01/12/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Monday, January 12: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Tuesday, January 13: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Wednesday, January 14: ANY SEVERE: low
Thursday, January 15: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, January 16: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, January 17: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, January 18: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, January 19: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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