Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Wednesday, January 21

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, January 17	potential too low
Day 5	Sunday, January 18	potential too low
Day 6	Monday, January 19	potential too low
Day 7	Tuesday, January 20	potential too low
Day 8	Wednesday, January 21	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140930 SPC AC 140930

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range guidance generally indicates that amplified mid-level troughing, evolving by late week to the east of the Rockies, will be maintained through this coming weekend, before a fairly prominent ridge near and offshore of the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia coast weakens and redevelops to the west/northwest. However, even as flow trends less amplified, it appears that a broadly confluent westerly to northwesterly regime to the east of the Rockies may continue to support a series of southeastward developing cold surface ridges. Toward the middle of next week, this may become less of an influence across the southwestern into western Gulf Basin, beneath a belt of strengthening mid/upper westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific. It is possible that low-level moistening and forcing for ascent could become supportive of sufficient destabilization for thunderstorm development by Tuesday/Wednesday across the northwestern Gulf. However, it is not yet clear that this will impact areas inland of the Gulf coast, or become particularly strong.

..Kerr.. 01/14/2026

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National Risk Overview

Wednesday, January 14: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Thursday, January 15: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Friday, January 16: ANY SEVERE: low
Saturday, January 17: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, January 18: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, January 19: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, January 20: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, January 21: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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