Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Thursday, January 22

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, January 18	potential too low
Day 5	Monday, January 19	potential too low
Day 6	Tuesday, January 20	potential too low
Day 7	Wednesday, January 21	potential too low
Day 8	Thursday, January 22	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150947 SPC AC 150947

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range models continue to indicate that highly amplified mid-level troughing will persist across much of North America (to the east of the Rockies) and the Gulf Basin through this coming weekend into early next week, when an initially prominent ridge near the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast begins to weaken and perhaps redevelop to the west/northwest. Thereafter, sizable spread remains evident within and among the various model output concerning shorter wavelength developments and blocking within the larger-scale split flow across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific, and the impacts on the downstream flow remain unclear.

In general, it still appears that the Gulf Coast states and Gulf Basin may come under the increasing influence of a strengthening belt of westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, and troughing may tend to dig within the mid-latitude westerlies near and inland of the Pacific coast through mid to late next week. However, even with guidance indicating potential for modest surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies by the end of the period, it does not appear that moist return flow off a modifying Gulf boundary-layer will yet become supportive of appreciable inland destabilization.

..Kerr.. 01/15/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Thursday, January 15: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Friday, January 16: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Saturday, January 17: ANY SEVERE: low
Sunday, January 18: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, January 19: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, January 20: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, January 21: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, January 22: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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