Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Friday, January 23

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, January 19	potential too low
Day 5	Tuesday, January 20	potential too low
Day 6	Wednesday, January 21	potential too low
Day 7	Thursday, January 22	potential too low
Day 8	Friday, January 23	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160834 SPC AC 160834

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

DISCUSSION

Broad upper troughing will persist across much of the CONUS from the Rockies to the Eastern Seaboard during the Day 4-8 period. Surface high pressure will largely keep Gulf moisture well offshore, with cold air intrusions into the Plains and eastern U.S. precluding much in the way of thunderstorm potential.

The exception may be briefly on Day 6/Wednesday across portions of the Texas Coastal Plain vicinity. As a reinforcing shortwave upper trough ejects across the Rockies, lee surface low development over western TX will allow for very modest Gulf moisture to filter into south/southeast TX. A cold front will sweep south/southeast during the evening/overnight and isolated thunderstorms could develop. Severe potential appears low given modest moisture/limited destabilization.

..Leitman.. 01/16/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Friday, January 16: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Saturday, January 17: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Sunday, January 18: ANY SEVERE: low
Monday, January 19: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, January 20: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, January 21: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, January 22: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, January 23: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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