Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Friday, May 1

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, April 27	30%
Day 5	Tuesday, April 28	predictability too low
Day 6	Wednesday, April 29	predictability too low
Day 7	Thursday, April 30	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, May 1	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240901 SPC AC 240901

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Valid 271200Z - 021200Z

DISCUSSION

Latest medium-range model output suggests that a significant short wave perturbation emerging from the Southwest will pivot northeast of the middle/lower Missouri Valley, into the upper Great Lakes region, Monday through Monday night. It appears that the warm sector of an associated sub-1000 mb surface cyclone will become characterized by at least moderately large CAPE, ahead of the dryline/cold front overspreading much of the middle Mississippi Valley during the afternoon into evening. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, organized severe thunderstorm activity appears probable. It remains a bit unclear the extent to which sustained supercell development will be maintained, as opposed to convection quickly growing upscale into one or more clusters/lines, but there appears at least some potential for a few strong tornadoes, in addition to large hail and potentially widespread strong to severe wind gusts.

In the wake of this activity, into the middle to latter portion of next week, convective potential becomes more unclear as strong flow trends westerly, and broadly confluent across and east of the Rockies, between broad mid-level troughing overspreading the northern tier and broad mid-level ridging across the southern tier. Another, initially notable, short wave perturbation emerging from the southern mid-latitude/subtropical eastern Pacific is still forecast to progress into the Southwest. But latest model output suggests that it may become sheared while continuing across and east of the southern Rockies, with only modest to weak surface cyclogenesis currently forecast along a remnant frontal zone across the southern Great Plains through Southeast.

..Kerr.. 04/24/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Friday, April 24: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Saturday, April 25: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 30%; WIND: 30%
Sunday, April 26: ANY SEVERE: 30%
Monday, April 27: ANY SEVERE: 30%
Tuesday, April 28: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, April 29: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, April 30: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, May 1: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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