Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Saturday, May 2

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, April 28	15%
Day 5	Wednesday, April 29	predictability too low
Day 6	Thursday, April 30	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, May 1	predictability too low
Day 8	Saturday, May 2	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250855 SPC AC 250855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Valid 281200Z - 031200Z

DISCUSSION

In the wake of a significant surface cyclone, which may be in the process of migrating northeast of the upper Great Lakes region by 12Z Tuesday, it appears that a cold front will gradually advance across the Atlantic Seaboard and into the Gulf coast vicinity before stalling later this work week into next weekend. It appears that this will occur coincident with the southwestward suppression of subtropical ridging, initially centered over southern Mexico and influential as far north as the Gulf coast at the outset of this period.

Near the southern periphery of the westerlies/northern periphery of the subtropical ridging, there appears a similar signal in both ECENS and GEFS related medium-range guidance concerning potential for organized severe thunderstorm development by late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. An evolving pre-frontal corridor of moderate to strong potential instability across the Ark-La-Tex through Ark-La-Miss vicinity may provide a focus for an upscale growing thunderstorm cluster, aided by forcing for ascent and shear associated with a mid-level speed maximum progressing across the region.

Through the remainder of the week, into early next weekend, the lingering frontal zone across the Gulf coast region may provide a focus for occasional continuing thunderstorm development, particularly as an initially notable short wave perturbation, emerging from the southern mid-/subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific, progresses east of the southern Rockies. However, barring more substantive frontal wave development than currently forecast, potential for organized severe convection remains unclear.

..Kerr.. 04/25/2026

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National Risk Overview

Saturday, April 25: TORNADO: 10%; HAIL: 45%; WIND: 30%
Sunday, April 26: TORNADO: 10%; HAIL: 30%; WIND: 30%
Monday, April 27: ANY SEVERE: 45%
Tuesday, April 28: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Wednesday, April 29: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, April 30: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, May 1: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, May 2: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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