Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Monday, August 10

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, August 7	predictability too low
Day 5	Saturday, August 8	predictability too low
Day 6	Sunday, August 9	predictability too low
Day 7	Monday, August 10	predictability too low
Day 8	Tuesday, August 11	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040900 SPC AC 040900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Tue Aug 04 2026

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper high will remain over the southwestern states through much of the period, with a deep upper low gradually shifting eastward across Ontario Canada. In between, a zone of moderate northwest flow aloft will exist from the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes. At the surface, low pressure will exist over the central High Plains, with an east-west boundary roughly along I-80 from Nebraska eastward.

Stronger cyclonic flow aloft will move out of the northern Plains on Fri/D4 and increase across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast from Sat/D5 through the end of the period, with midlevel winds around 30-40 kt possibly overspreading the surface front. A large area of upper 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints will remain along and south of the boundary, which may shift north/south as disturbances rotate around the Canadian upper low. Predictability remains low for denoting precise MCS corridors, but timing of the upper wave amplifications will be monitored in subsequent forecast cycles, with possible risk areas mainly for damaging wind potential.

..Jewell.. 08/04/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, August 4: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Wednesday, August 5: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Thursday, August 6: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Friday, August 7: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, August 8: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, August 9: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, August 10: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, August 11: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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