Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Tuesday, August 4

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, July 31	predictability too low
Day 5	Saturday, August 1	potential too low
Day 6	Sunday, August 2	predictability too low
Day 7	Monday, August 3	predictability too low
Day 8	Tuesday, August 4	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280814 SPC AC 280814

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Valid 311200Z - 051200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Friday

The 00Z models have trended toward a more intense short-wave trough over the Midwest, which in turn leads to a deeper surface low tracking toward the mid MS Valley. However, the progression of those features will be toward an area of more persistent surface ridging with only an axis of modest instability forecast ahead of the surface low. Stronger instability is expected to reside farther southwest from the lower MO Valley into the Ozark Plateau, ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front. A few severe storms appear possible from the vicinity of the surface low southwest along the cold front. But, given the northward displacement of the stronger forcing for ascent and vertical shear from the stronger instability, the degree of organized severe weather potential remains uncertain.

Elsewhere, an isolated severe weather threat could materialize over the northern and central High Plains within a moist, low-level upslope regime.

### Day 5/Saturday

The Day 4 short-wave trough is forecast to develop through the mid MS into lower OH Valley along with the surface low. Meanwhile, the trailing cold front will advance southeast into the lower MS Valley, where moderate to strong instability is forecast by afternoon. A few severe storms appear possible along and ahead of the front; however, generally weak vertical shear is expected to limit the potential for a more organized event.

Day 6-8/Sunday through Tuesday

Both the ensemble means and deterministic models remain in relatively good agreement in depicting a stronger short-wave trough and attending belt of mid-level flow progressing along the international border from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains in the Sunday-Monday time frame. Some severe weather threat could materialize along an associated cold front over ND on Sunday and the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley on Monday as strengthening vertical shear overspreads an unstable warm sector. By Tuesday, the front is expected to stall over the central High Plains with some severe weather threat possible within the post-frontal upslope regime.

..Mead.. 07/28/2026

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National Risk Overview

Tuesday, July 28: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 30%
Wednesday, July 29: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Thursday, July 30: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Friday, July 31: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, August 1: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, August 2: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, August 3: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, August 4: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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