Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Wednesday, August 5

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, August 1	predictability too low
Day 5	Sunday, August 2	predictability too low
Day 6	Monday, August 3	predictability too low
Day 7	Tuesday, August 4	predictability too low
Day 8	Wednesday, August 5	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290839 SPC AC 290839

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Saturday

A short-wave trough will progress from the mid MS into lower OH Valleys with modest height falls forecast across the Gulf Coast states. At the surface, an area of low pressure will follow the same track as the upper-air system, while a trailing cold front advances through the lower MS and TN Valleys. While weaker than on Friday, a modest enhancement of 850-mb winds is forecast during the afternoon ahead of the surface low over the OH and TN Valleys.

Morning storms appear possible from the lower OH into lower MS Valleys within a zone of warm advection associated with a nocturnal low-level jet. The longevity and extent of early-day storms remain uncertain, but where stronger heating can occur, the presence of boundary-layer dewpoints in the 70s will contribute to pockets of moderate instability. Additional storms are anticipated during the afternoon, focused along the cold front and any residual outflow boundaries from previous storms. Deep-layer shear is expected to remain generally less than 30 kt, which will tend to limit the potential for organized storm modes. A possible exception is across parts of KY and TN where slightly stronger low-level shear could contribute to updraft rotation and some tornado risk. Otherwise, locally damaging wind gusts appear to be the primary hazard.

Isolated severe storms capable of mainly damaging winds and hail appear possible over the southern High Plains Saturday afternoon and evening within a moist and unstable upslope regime.

### Days 5 and 6/Sunday and Monday

The models remain in relatively good agreement in depicting a strong short-wave trough and attending belt of mid-level flow progressing along the international border from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. Low-level ridging from the Great Lakes into southern Plains may disrupt the return of robust boundary-layer moisture ahead of a cold front moving through the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley. Nonetheless, the presence of steep lapse rates and strengthening vertical shear along the frontal zone will support some severe weather risk over the northern Plains on Sunday and the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley on Monday.

An isolated severe storm threat may also develop along the East Coast on Sunday, ahead of a positively tilted trough moving through the Great Lakes and OH and TN Valley.

### Days 7 and 8/Tuesday and Wednesday

The 00Z ensemble means indicate a belt of modestly enhanced mid-level flow from the northern Rockies into the Great Lakes, between a trough over Hudson Bay and a flattened ridge across the Southwest. Some severe weather threat may materialize over the central High Plains along and to the north of a stalled front, and perhaps in AZ if stronger easterly flow can develop on the south side of the upper high.

..Mead.. 07/29/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, July 29: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Thursday, July 30: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Friday, July 31: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Saturday, August 1: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, August 2: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, August 3: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, August 4: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, August 5: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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