Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Thursday, August 6

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, August 2	predictability too low
Day 5	Monday, August 3	predictability too low
Day 6	Tuesday, August 4	predictability too low
Day 7	Wednesday, August 5	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, August 6	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300835 SPC AC 300835

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4 and 5/Sunday and Monday

The models remain in relatively good agreement in depicting a strong short-wave trough and attending belt of mid-level flow progressing along the international border from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. Meanwhile, an associated cold front is forecast to move into the northern High Plains on Sunday and the upper MS Valley into northern Plains on Monday. Low-level ridging from the Great Lakes into Ozark Plateau may disrupt the advection of a maritime tropical air mass ahead of the front. However, evapotranspiration will contribute to pockets of higher moisture content, which, combined with the eastern extension of an EML plume, will contribute to moderate instability ahead of a surface cold front both afternoons.

On Sunday, the strongest forcing for ascent associated with a lead vorticity lobe is expected to remain across SK and MB with capping to the south of that feature potentially limiting storm coverage along the front in ND. On the condition that storms develop, the presence of moderate instability and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear would support storm organization and at least an isolated severe weather threat. Additional severe storms appear possible from the Mid-Atlantic into Southeast ahead of a short-wave trough moving through the Great Lakes, OH Valley, and Gulf Coast states.

On Monday, a secondary disturbance and associated jet streak are forecast to move into the northern Plains, supporting a potentially greater severe weather threat from the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley.

### Days 6 through 8/Tuesday through Thursday

The 00Z deterministic and ensemble mean solutions indicate low-amplitude troughing across the north-central states on Tuesday with a belt of enhanced mid-level flow extending from the northern Rockies into the upper Great Lakes. A few severe storms appear possible over the central High Plains where the southern periphery of the stronger mid-level flow is juxtaposed with a moist and unstable upslope regime.

By Wednesday and Thursday, the ensemble mean solutions indicate a modestly enhanced belt of quasi-zonal flow across the northern tier of the CONUS. However, there is considerable spread across the deterministic models with the location and track of disturbances embedded within that air stream. As such, confidence in the location and extent of any severe weather threat is low.

..Mead.. 07/30/2026

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National Risk Overview

Thursday, July 30: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Friday, July 31: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Saturday, August 1: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Sunday, August 2: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, August 3: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, August 4: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, August 5: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, August 6: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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