Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Wednesday, August 12

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, August 8	predictability too low
Day 5	Sunday, August 9	predictability too low
Day 6	Monday, August 10	predictability too low
Day 7	Tuesday, August 11	predictability too low
Day 8	Wednesday, August 12	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050900 SPC AC 050900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed Aug 05 2026

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

DISCUSSION

Saturday/D4

Southwest midlevel winds of only 25 kt will exist across the Northeast, while low-level moisture remains in place supporting up to 2000 J/kg MUCAPE with poor lapse rates aloft. This will support daytime thunderstorms over a large area from the Appalachians into the Northeast, and a few severe gusts cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, normal gusty outflow winds are to be expected.

To the west, an area of stronger instability is forecast across the Mid MO Valley, where northwesterly midlevel winds of 35 kt will exist along the southern periphery of a trough sweeping across the Upper Great Lakes. Evening/overnight storms may occur across parts of eastern NE, IA, and MO, and instability may be large enough to warrant at least low severe probabilities as the event nears in time.

Sunday/D5

Drying will occur aloft over parts of the Northeast as a wave moves into Quebec, but substantial low-level moisture will still support scattered thunderstorms ahead of a cold front across the Mid Atlantic. Shear will again be weak, but perhaps enough mean wind speeds will exist for storms to be mobile/produce areas of strong gusts.

To the west, low-level moisture is forecast to shift a bit farther north into the Dakotas, and this will occur beneath stronger northwest flow aloft. This area bears watching in later outlooks, as wind profiles may somewhat favor supercells. Predictability is currently low.

Mon/D6 to Wed/D8

While predictability decreases further during this time frame, moderate west to northwest flow aloft will remain from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes, which will spread into the Northeast D7/D8. If a wave does amplify within this flow regime, a corridor of damaging winds could develop given upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints along/south of the mean frontal zone (roughly IA to NY/PA by end of the period). Model variation is currently too great to depict an precise corridor.

..Jewell.. 08/05/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, August 5: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Thursday, August 6: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Friday, August 7: ANY SEVERE: low
Saturday, August 8: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, August 9: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, August 10: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, August 11: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, August 12: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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