Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Thursday, August 13

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, August 9	predictability too low
Day 5	Monday, August 10	predictability too low
Day 6	Tuesday, August 11	predictability too low
Day 7	Wednesday, August 12	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, August 13	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060800 SPC AC 060800

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 AM CDT Thu Aug 06 2026

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

DISCUSSION

For the Sunday/D4 through Thursday/D8 period, an elongated zone of thunderstorm/wind potential will exist from the northern Plains across parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes, and possibly extending into parts of the Northeast. Predictability is low for this pattern given the likelihood of ongoing corridors of storms early each day, and variability with the position of the elongated west to east front. However, the presence of a very moist air mass, with possibly strong instability to the south, combined with possible waves rotating around the large-scale upper trough over Canada, may yield storm corridors with damaging wind potential. One or more areas may be denoted in later outlooks as the events near in time.

At this time, rough areas of interest include the northern Plains to Upper Midwest on Sunday/D4, and portions of the Great Lakes/Midwest on Monday/D5.

..Jewell.. 08/06/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Thursday, August 6: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Friday, August 7: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Saturday, August 8: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Sunday, August 9: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, August 10: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, August 11: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, August 12: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, August 13: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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