Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Friday, August 14

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, August 10	15%
Day 5	Tuesday, August 11	predictability too low
Day 6	Wednesday, August 12	predictability too low
Day 7	Thursday, August 13	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, August 14	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070859 SPC AC 070859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri Aug 07 2026

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

DISCUSSION

Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6

A broad cyclonic flow pattern is forecast to remain in place from the north-central U.S. to the Northeast during the early to mid-week. On the southern edge of the stronger flow, it appears that an east-to-west corridor of moisture and instability will remain in place from the central Plains eastward into the Midwest. On Monday, isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible during the afternoon and evening along and near the northern edge of the stronger instability, from eastern Nebraska eastward into the southern Great Lakes. The greatest convective coverage is expected to be from northern Illinois eastward into western Pennsylvania, where low-level flow is forecast to be maximized. Moderate deep-layer shear along this zone is forecast to be favorable for a severe threat Monday afternoon and evening. Supercells and multicell line segments will have potential to produce severe wind gusts.

On Tuesday and Wednesday, model forecasts suggest that a front will move southward into northern sections of the Ohio Valley, while the instability axis remains in a similar position further west near the Omaha area. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will again be possible in the afternoon and evening, near and to the north of the instability axis. An isolated severe threat could develop with storms that form within or near the strongest instability. However, predictability is low concerning where the greatest potential for severe storms will be.

Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8

On Thursday and Friday, west to northwesterly mid-level flow is forecast over much of the eastern half of the nation. A moist and unstable airmass should be in place from the central and northern Plains southeastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Although large-scale ascent may be relatively weak over much of this area, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible across parts of this airmass during the afternoon and evening. Due to the extended time range, predictability remains low concerning the finer-scale details of any scenario from Thursday into Friday.

..Broyles.. 08/07/2026

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National Risk Overview

Friday, August 7: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Saturday, August 8: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Sunday, August 9: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Monday, August 10: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Tuesday, August 11: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, August 12: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, August 13: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, August 14: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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