Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Sunday, May 3

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, April 29	predictability too low
Day 5	Thursday, April 30	potential too low
Day 6	Friday, May 1	potential too low
Day 7	Saturday, May 2	potential too low
Day 8	Sunday, May 3	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260848 SPC AC 260848

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 041200Z

DISCUSSION

In general, the latest medium-range model output suggests that the prevailing split flow will continue to evolve in a manner that results in a broadly confluent regime developing across and east of the Rockies by mid week through next weekend. Within the northern branch, it appears that a mid-level low will develop and deepen within broad troughing overspreading the Northeast, while an initially prominent subtropical high, centered over southern Mexico, becomes suppressed, as the first in a series of developing southern stream lows is forced inland across the southern tier of the United States. It appears that this will be preceded by broad cool surface ridging overspreading much of the central and eastern U.S., as far south as the Gulf Coast region by Thursday. While associated forcing for ascent and destabilization might support increasing thunderstorm development across parts of central and southern Texas late this work week, mostly above/to the cool side of a stalling frontal zone, into Florida and adjacent portions of the Southeast by late next weekend, the risk for severe weather appears relatively minor at this time.

..Kerr.. 04/26/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Sunday, April 26: TORNADO: 10%; HAIL: 30%; WIND: 30%
Monday, April 27: TORNADO: 10%; HAIL: 30%; WIND: 45%
Tuesday, April 28: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Wednesday, April 29: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, April 30: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, May 1: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, May 2: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, May 3: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Your Severe Outlook

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