Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Saturday, August 15

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, August 11	predictability too low
Day 5	Wednesday, August 12	predictability too low
Day 6	Thursday, August 13	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, August 14	predictability too low
Day 8	Saturday, August 15	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080855 SPC AC 080855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Sat Aug 08 2026

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

DISCUSSION

Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5

A broad cyclonic mid-level flow pattern is forecast from the upper Mississippi Valley into the Northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast to be in place over most of the eastern half of the nation with a quasi-stationary front located from the northern Plains east-southeastward into the southern Great Lakes. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints in the 70s F will likely result in the development of moderate to strong instability. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop each afternoon in areas where low-level convergence becomes maximized. Outflow boundaries will be important in determining where the greatest convective coverage ends up being. In addition to the instability, moderate deep-layer shear is forecast over much of this moist airmass suggesting that an isolated wind-damage threat will be possible. However, the lack of any appreciable mid-level shortwave trough introduces considerable uncertainty.

Thursday/Day 6 and Saturday/Day 8

From Thursday to Saturday, mid-level flow is forecast to become westerly over much of the northern U.S, with a front located from the central Plains eastward into the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible each afternoon and evening near this front. Surface dewpoints in the 70s F to the south of the front, along with moderate to strong instability will make isolated severe thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening. However, spatial uncertainty concerning any potential severe threat is considerable at this range.

..Broyles.. 08/08/2026

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National Risk Overview

Saturday, August 8: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Sunday, August 9: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Monday, August 10: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Tuesday, August 11: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, August 12: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, August 13: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, August 14: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, August 15: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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