Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Wednesday, October 21

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Wednesday, October 21

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, October 17	potential too low
Day 5	Sunday, October 18	potential too low
Day 6	Monday, October 19	potential too low
Day 7	Tuesday, October 20	predictability too low
Day 8	Wednesday, October 21	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140825 SPC AC 140825

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4 through 6/Saturday through Monday

An intense midlevel trough will move off the Atlantic Coast early on Day 4/Saturday in response to strong zonal flow developing along the U.S./Canadian border. Elsewhere, an upper low off the Baja Coast will weaken while accelerating through the Southwest into the Great Plains. In the low levels, a drier and more stable air mass is expected to limit severe weather potential through at least Monday.

### Days 7 and 8/Tuesday and Wednesday

There is good model agreement that a midlevel trough will move inland from the Pacific Coast. Meanwhile, an associated deepening of a lee surface trough is expected over the High Plains, which in turn will promote the poleward flux of an increasingly moist air mass from the Gulf into the Great Plains. An isolated severe weather threat could materialize by as early as Tuesday in the lower-Colorado Valley, where strengthening vertical shear and forcing for ascent overspread a marginally unstable environment. Uncertainty remains in how quickly the midlevel trough will move through the Interior West; however, it does appear that severe weather potential may increase over the central U.S. by Wednesday or Thursday of next week.

..Mead.. 10/14/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, October 14: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Thursday, October 15: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: low; WIND: 5%
Friday, October 16: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Saturday, October 17: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, October 18: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, October 19: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, October 20: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, October 21: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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