Severe Weather Outlook

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• ← Thursday, October 15

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any severe predictability too low

Days Covered in this Outlook

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090903 SPC AC 090903

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0403 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

There is reasonably good agreement in 00Z deterministic and ensemble guidance that a mid/upper-level low centered over the Sierra Nevada or Great Basin on Day 4/Monday will evolve into an open wave while progressing into the Great Plains on Day 6/Wednesday. Thereafter, model spread increases in the evolution of the large-scale pattern.

Day 4/Monday

Some severe weather threat could materialize during the afternoon along a surface boundary over the Upper Midwest where at least modest instability will coincide with sufficiently strong deep-layer shear to support organized storm modes. However, low-amplitude ridging downstream from the western U.S. trough along with uncertainty in the extent of air mass destabilization renders the threat too questionable to include a 15% area.

### Day 5/Tuesday

Increasing height falls and midlevel flow will overspread the central and southern High Plains, which in turn will induce a deepening lee cyclone, likely over southeast CO. At the surface, a front is expected to stretch from the low through the OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic with a dryline trailing south from the cyclone into eastern NM or western TX. Isolated strong to severe storms appear possible along the length of the front from the Mid-Atlantic into the central and southern Plains. Organized severe storm potential appears most probable over the central and southern High Plains Tuesday afternoon into evening in the vicinity of the lee cyclone and strengthening low-level jet, where the strongest forcing for ascent and vertical shear will coincide.

### Day 6/Wednesday

As mentioned above, there is overall model agreement that a short-wave trough and a strengthening deep-layer wind field will advance into the Great Plains at this time. However, there are slight timing and latitudinal differences in the track of the midlevel system and the associated surface low. Despite these differences, it does appear that a broad, moist, and unstable warm sector will exist. As such, organized severe storms appear possible with the highest confidence in occurrence over portions of eastern KS into MO where guidance currently indicates the most favorable overlap of instability and vertical shear. The currently delineated area may move slightly and/or expand in the coming days as forecast confidence increases.

### Days 7 and 8/Thursday and Friday

Some severe weather threat could develop over the Great Lakes and OH Valley on Thursday in association with the mid-level trough discussed in the previous sections. However, confidence in organized severe storm potential is currently too low given the model variability in the specific details of the trough and associated frontal system.

..Mead.. 10/09/2026

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National Risk Overview

Friday, October 9

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: low

WIND: low

Saturday, October 10

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: low

WIND: 5%

Sunday, October 11

ANY SEVERE: 5%

Monday, October 12

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Tuesday, October 13

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Wednesday, October 14

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Thursday, October 15

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Friday, October 16

ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Your Severe Outlook