Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Sunday, October 18

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Sunday, October 18

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, October 14	predictability too low
Day 5	Thursday, October 15	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, October 16	potential too low
Day 7	Saturday, October 17	potential too low
Day 8	Sunday, October 18	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110816 SPC AC 110816

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

A mid/upper-level low is forecast to progress from the eastern Great Basin into the central Rockies on Day 4/Wednesday. By Day 5/Thursday, there is good model consensus in the break-up of the low, with much of it being enveloped by an amplifying polar-branch trough over the north-central CONUS. By Days 6 and 7/ Friday and Saturday, there is general model agreement that a broader-scale trough will spread from the MS Valley toward the Atlantic Coast.

### Day 4/Wednesday

At least isolated severe storms appear most probable over the southern Plains during the afternoon and evening, along and ahead of a surface front extending from the southern High Plains through the mid-MS Valley. The presence of a moist air mass will support moderate instability by afternoon in areas that experience greater daytime heating. Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Wednesday morning within the warm sector, leading to uncertainty in where the effective surface front will be located by afternoon to focus more robust storm development. While no 15% contour will be included in this forecast, at least level-1/Marginal Risk probabilities will likely be required in the subsequent Day 3 forecast for this time period.

Elsewhere, a few strong to severe storms appear possible along the remaining length of the front from the mid-MS Valley into the Mid-Atlantic.

### Day 5/Thursday

Some severe weather threat may materialize from the Ozark Plateau into the OH Valley in the vicinity of a surface low and attending frontal system. However, the potential for early-day storms and model variability in the particular details of the upper-air pattern evolution result in considerable uncertainty in the magnitude of the threat.

### Days 6 to 8/Friday to Sunday

A cold front on the leading edge of a prominent surface high will push through most locations east of the Rockies by Saturday morning. A strong storm or two appears possible along the front in the Mid-Atlantic on Friday. Otherwise, the influx of a drier, continental-polar air mass is expected to limit the threat for severe storms.

..Mead.. 10/11/2026

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National Risk Overview

Sunday, October 11: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: low; WIND: 15%
Monday, October 12: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Tuesday, October 13: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Wednesday, October 14: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, October 15: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, October 16: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, October 17: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, October 18: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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