Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Monday, October 19

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

any severe severe weather outlook for Monday, October 19

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, October 15	predictability too low
Day 5	Friday, October 16	predictability too low
Day 6	Saturday, October 17	potential too low
Day 7	Sunday, October 18	potential too low
Day 8	Monday, October 19	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120825 SPC AC 120825

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

A short-wave trough over central Canada on Day 4/Thursday morning is forecast to undergo considerable amplification while progressing southeast through the Great Lakes to the Atlantic Coast by Day 5/Friday. That upper-air system will be attended by a surface low, which is expected to develop along a front from the mid-MS Valley through the OH Valley to off the New England coast. Meanwhile, a strong cold front will surge south, reaching the Gulf Coast by Friday night or early Saturday. In its wake, a drier, continental- polar airmass will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Rockies, limiting the threat for severe thunderstorms this weekend into early next week.

Day 4/Thursday and Thursday night

Despite the potential for early-day showers and thunderstorms, a seasonably moist boundary layer is forecast along and to the south of the front and surface low in the mid-MS and OH Valleys. The moisture combined with daytime heating will contribute to at least modest air mass destabilization by afternoon. Both vertical shear and forcing for ascent will strengthen through the period with the approach of the midlevel trough. As such, some severe weather appears possible on Thursday with the threat possibly continuing through Thursday night from the OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. At least level-1/Marginal Risk probabilities may be required in the subsequent Day 3 Outlook for this time period.

### Day 5/Friday

As mentioned above, some severe weather threat could develop over the Mid-Atlantic late Thursday night or Friday morning with additional strong to severe storms possible by afternoon along the front in the southern Mid-Atlantic or Carolinas.

### Days 6 to 8/Saturday to Monday

No severe weather is currently expected.

..Mead.. 10/12/2026

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National Risk Overview

Monday, October 12: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Tuesday, October 13: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Wednesday, October 14: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Thursday, October 15: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, October 16: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, October 17: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, October 18: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, October 19: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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